Wizards Must Take Advantage of Rare Draft Capital

Photo via Geoff Burke (USA TODAY Sports)

The media loves to focus on the lottery picks in the NBA Draft, but what about the following selections? The Washington Wizards find themselves in the No. 15 slot, the first for playoff teams. They will have a bevy of options at their disposal, but what direction do they want to go?

This is unfamiliar territory for the Wizards. They haven't had a single draft selection since 2015. The trades of 2016's picks were less egregious, but General Manager Ernie Grunfeld may like a do-over on the Bojan Bogdanovic and Tim Frazier deals. They're not in that position this year, so it would be helpful to make up some ground.

For a team with playoff expectations every season, the Wizards have a lot of holes (perhaps the trades have something to do with it). They've needed a complimentary ball-handler for years, there is a relative lack of three-point shooters, not having a consistent post presence has been problematic, and we'd be best off not discussing defense at all (that playoff series was against Toronto, who can't score in the playoffs).

Who will be there?

First of all, who they take is dependent upon who's available. I created my own mock draft (well, just the top ten picks) recently. You can find my rationale for each selection here, but the predictions themselves are as follows.

1. Suns: Deandre Ayton (Arizona)

2. Kings: Luka Doncic (Real Madrid)

3. Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State)

4. Grizzlies: Mohamed Bamba (Texas)

5. Mavericks: Marvin Bagley III (Duke)

6. Magic: Trae Young (Oklahoma)

7. Bulls: Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri)

8. Cavaliers: Collin Sexton (Alabama)

9. Knicks: Mikal Bridges (Villanova)

10. 76ers: Miles Bridges (Michigan State)

No one in the top five will slip outside of the lottery (top 14), and it would be extremely surprising if the next three players did, either. After that, it's not impossible, but don't expect "the Bridges brothers" nor Wendell Carter Jr. (Bagley's co-big man at Duke) to be available.

With that said, if any of these players, as well as Kevin Knox (Kentucky), Lonnie Walker IV (Miami) or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky) is available, the Wizards would likely pounce. For argument's sake, though, let's assume they're off the board.

Who do they like?

From there, it's important to look into who the organization is looking into. The following players are confirmed to have worked out for the Wizards and could be in consideration when they make their first selection.

Guards

Devonte' Graham (Kansas)

Aaron Holiday (UCLA)

Elie Okobo (France)

Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech)

Forwards

Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State)

Troy Brown Jr. (Oregon)

Hamidou Diallo (Kentucky)

Centers

Brandon McCoy (UNLV)

Moritz Wagner (Michigan)

Robert Williams (Texas A&M)

In nba.com's compilation of the most recent draft projections by major outlets, Smith and Williams appear to be the favorites. However, those predictions don't necessarily mean anything (no offense). They didn't all necessarily take into account whether players had auditioned for the team, either.

What do they need?

Once the stage is set, the first factor to consider in making this decision, since it's so debatable, is the team's contractual obligations. Analyzing who is controlled for the foreseeable future, who should be locked up, and who will likely be let go can offer quite a bit of insight.

All but four players (Ian Mahinmi, Otto Porter Jr., Bradley Beal, and John Wall) will be free agents next offseason. That means Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris will be off the books, but it also means that Kelly Oubre Jr. and fast riser Tomas Satoransky will hit the open market (unless they receive extensions), and they may not be able to keep both of them.

Gortat and Morris are Washington's starting big men, and even Oubre plays as a four a fair chunk of the time. Mahinmi is the only post player they have under contract long term, and you can't rely on him to do that much, especially offensively. In short, the current outlook is bleak.

On the other hand, assuming the team is at full strength, these players (except for Gortat) most frequently guard wings and forwards. Therefore, the team may need to draft a player who can fill one of those voids.

Who fits the needs?

If the Wizards want to replace Gortat and are willing to phase him and Mahinmi out, Robert Williams (Sports Illustated's No. 15 prospect) might be the answer. If, however, they desire a potentially better version of Morris with more defensive versatility, Keita Bates-Diop may be ideal.

A combo guard would also be acceptable, in theory, but there isn't a perfect option on the board. Aaron Holiday would be the closest match, but, at just 6-foot-1, he doesn't have the physical profile to be more than a point guard, and John Wall isn't giving up major minutes anytime soon. Devonte' Graham can be disqualified for roughly the same reason.

There's a good chance that Washington goes with Zhaire Smith, who, at 6-foot-5 and 195 pounds, converted on over 55 percent of his shots, including 45 percent of his threes (which John Wall is probably drooling over). He also has the athletic traits of a solid wing defender. However, any major interest may be dependent upon whether the organization sees him being able to play some point guard, since that is also an area of need.

Don't reach for a guard

Unless they're getting a slam-dunk big man (pun semi-intended), fans will always clamor for either a playmaker or a shooter. The Wizards have relative needs at those spots, but it's often a mistake to take one early, unless it's an almost-generational talent and/or a dire need. Those types of role players are often available later, and there may be a particularly appealing one this year.

The Wizards' best shot at a combo guard at slot value, if they're willing to wait until the 44th selection, might be Trevon Bluiett, who also worked out for the team. A relative unknown nationally, the 6-foot-6, 198 pound prospect averaged almost 16 points per game in his four seasons at Xavier, including 19.3 and (5.5 rebounds) as a senior. More importantly, he knocked down over 37 percent of his three-pointers in each of his final three seasons, capped off by a 41.7 percent success rate this past year.

Smith and Bluiett are roughly the same size and they both shoot well. Smith will go sooner, because he did in one year as much or more (on a rate basis) than what Bluiett did in any of his four. So what makes Bluiett so much more valuable?

In addition to the fact that taking a comparable player 29 selections later is innately more valuable, the veteran Bluiett also carried his offense. He's coming off a season in which he took over 200 more three-pointers than the youngster. At Texas Tech, Keenan Evans also averaged more points and assists than Smith, and that's on his own team. In contrast, Xavier went as Bluiett went.

In 2017, he suffered an injury in a loss to Villanova and missed two games, both of which they lost. That destroyed the team's momentum, leading to them becoming an 11-seed in March Madness. However, with their leader back into form down the stretch, they made it all the way to the Elite Eight, carried by Bluiett, who made the West Regional all tournament team. And that wasn't even his best season.

What should they do?

Again, this is assuming that the top players are selected when they're supposed to be. If everything holds to form and Robert Williams is available, he is the best player at a position of need.

Here's the thing — the Wizards shouldn't take him. Even though he fills a future void at center, he's too similar to Mahinmi. As of now, he's just a rim protecter, although he has plenty of time to develop offensively. He didn't make a single three-pointer in 2017–2018, and his conditioning is somewhat in question. In today's NBA, those are major red flags.

The best player for the Wizards is Keita Bates-Diop. At 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds, he profiles rather similarly to Draymond Green, as an impressive rebounder for his size and a potential "stretch four" who can make a respectable

percentage of his shots from distance. He led Ohio State in points (19.8), rebounds (8.7) and blocks (1.6) per game this past season, and showed signs of defensive switch-ability.

Phoenix, who has the pick after Washington, doesn't have a particular need for a shooter, so they wouldn't trade up, but the next three teams — Milwaukee, San Antonio (especially if Kawhi Leonard departs) and Atlanta — are among the teams most in need of one, which may create a bidding war for Smith, especially if he's indeed available in the Wizards' slot. In return, the Wizards have a chance to wind up with a better fit for their team, plus (in all likelihood) an extra pick.

After that, they can pick from a crop of guards. Unless he isn't the best available combo guard — many of the higher-profile guards in this range don't fit that label — they can take Bluiett with their next selection. Initially, they'd have him run the second unit, alongside Satoransky, and see how he develops. If nothing else, he should be able to compliment the latter's overall basketball savviness, but occasional passiveness, with his true-scorer's mentality, while also matching his presence on the other end, with the ability to guard "one through three."

At some point, Grunfeld must realize that one of the easiest ways to get John Wall, who loves fast-breaks and playing up-tempo, some help is to acquire younger talent. He has failed to give Wall that help lately — the Wizards were, at season's end, the fifth-oldest team in the league — but he might be in prime position to make up for those gaffs this year. All he has to do is get the right players. No pressure.