Boomer Sooner Will Withstand Grier and the Mountaineers
Photo via June Frantz Hunt (The Norman Transcript)
Oklahoma is projected to finish ahead of West Virginia, but many analysts are putting stock in the Mountaineers to pull off the upset this year. While they should be improved this season, expect the title to continue its reign in Norman, OK.
Baker Mayfield has moved on, and that will hurt Oklahoma to some degree. You don't lose the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, an efficient passer of historic proportion, and not take a bit of a hit. Don't be surprised if you see the Sooners drop a game early as they transition to quarterback Kyler Murray. However, they will likely be favored in every game, except possibly the finale.
Photo via ESPN.com
Speaking of Murray, he's quite the story, and certainly atypical for an Oklahoma quarterback, or a signal-caller in Lincoln Riley's air raid offense. The two-sport star was drafted ninth overall in the 2018 MLB Draft by the Oakland Athletics, and has stated that this year will be his last playing football. That's a strange element to have in place this season, but it shouldn't have an impact on his performance.
In 2017 (after sitting out the prior year following his transfer from Texas A&M), he was predominantly a change-of-pace option quarterback used to occasionally give Mayfield a breather and change a defense's game plan. Now the man in charge, it's fair to question how he'll fit within the existing system.
With that said, certain players transcend the confines of what traditionally exists. The offense will be tailored to his strengths. How much so? There's no way to know until the season starts, but to keep things status quo given his athletic ability would be insane.
Murray doesn't have Mayfield's passing ability, and that's certainly important in a conference driven by that trait. Here's the thing, though: it probably doesn't matter much. In addition to the added dynamic his legs provide, in arial attacks such as Oklahoma's, and against typically terrible defensive play, stretching the field inside and out is exponentially easier than it is in other situations. He will likely be a dual threat that the Big 12 hasn't seen since Robert Griffin III — and that netted him a Heisman Trophy.
Oh, and that's another thing. Lincoln Riley isn't accustomed to mobile quarterbacks like Murray, but Art Briles wasn't either, and he did just fine at Baylor with Griffin.
Two regular season losses is a reasonable prediction, but expect the Sooners to finish much stronger than they start, as Murray grows increasingly comfortable with the (likely evolving) offense. That momentum will likely lead them to victory over West Virginia — even in a November game in Morgantown — and a potential rematch in Jerry World (a semi-home game for the Big 12 crown) should only make matters easier.
As for West Virginia, am I crazy to think they have some bust potential this year? Will Grier has a chance to be special, but the cupboard is pretty bare beyond that, and history suggests that the Mountaineers are far from perfect around him.
First of all, what history does West Virginia have? Just last year, with Grier under center, the team went 7–5 in the regular season. Granted, WVU was 7–3 entering its matchup with Texas, when Grier suffered a season-ending finger injury. However, that game and a road bout with Oklahoma were both losable, even with him.
Head coach Dana Holgorsen has a 53–37 (32–29 with Big 12 play) record since taking over the Mountaineers in 2012, with one double-digit win season. In short, he's been respectable, but certainly nothing special. More importantly, he hasn't had to shoulder success like Riley has.
West Virginia, admittedly, has a rather favorable schedule. Particularly in conference play, the most difficult competition will have to travel to Morgantown, which is always difficult. With that said, there are games that shouldn't be slept on, particularly during the last third of the season.
Photo via ESPN.com
The most problematic piece for the Mountaineers is their defensive ineptitude. This holds true for most Big 12 teams, but it's particularly exagerated in this case. Whereas Oklahoma ranked No. 67 out of 129 Division 1 schools in total defense last year, WVU checked in at No. 106. For context, Texas Tech (who always gets picked on for being incapable of stopping anyone) was No. 104.
Here's an even more troubling comparison, speaking of Texas Tech. Their defenses are comparable, and so are Grier and recent Red Raider Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury is also a direct disciple of Holgorsen. These were the records that Mahomes-led teams "boasted" prior to his ascent to the NFL.
2015: 7–6 (including a bowl game loss)
2016: 5–7
It's hard to imagine the Mountaineers will be flirting with .500, but the results for a unit so closely tied (and similarly constructed) to can't be ignored. It's difficult to realistically give them more than a 10-win ceiling.
TCU shouldn't be ignored as a Big 12 contender, but the loss of quarterback Kenny Hill hurts the school's chances at Big 12 and playoff redemption. Beyond the Horned Frogs, there is no clear threat in the conference, but stranger things have happened. Until the calendar turns to September...and then October...and then November, this is all speculation.