Wednesday Weekly: OBJ's Contract, AFC Predictions, College Football Starts and the Nationals Sta
Photo via Andrew Mills (NJ Advance Media)
Thanks again to everyone who has made my mailbag a success so far. Keep it up!
I received a variety of different questions this week, covering the NFL, college football and the MLB. Let's start with something well above my pay grade: contract negotiations with a star player.
"I am a lifelong Giants fan... but is a loose cannon like Beckham worthy of being the highest paid receiver in the NFL????"
– Don Newman
As a reminder, if Twitter isn't your forté, you can always ask me a question on Facebook, via email, text message, or any other avenue. I'm not picky!
Now onto the question itself. Earlier this week, Odell Beckham Jr. signed a five year contract extension with the New York Giants that is worth up to $90 million in new money with one year (plus an additional option) remaining on his rookie deal. The contract set records for total value and guaranteed dollars for a wide receiver.
There are multiple criticisms of this deal. Arguably the most rudimentary is that Beckham missed most of last season and is returning from a torn ACL. There is certainly risk associated with that, but obviously the Giants' brass has seen enough from him this offseason to trust his health.
Coupled with that, however, Beckham has a large personality on and off the field. Some people see it as cancerous, while others view it as just part of being a star wideout. After all, it does take a certain confidence to be that top guy who gets every team's best effort in coverage, and that can result in "egotistic" outbursts when things don't go his way.
The larger question, which may never be answerable, relates to how much value a wide receiver even has in determining the outcome of games. As mentioned, they can go a long way in dictating coverage and manipulating the formation of the opposing defense, but a receiver can also only have a direct impact (excluding blocking or some sort of trick play or reverse) when the ball is thrown to them, and accurately. Even the most valuable pass catchers are only targeted ten times a game. Other than that, they're not particularly useful unless you have an additional star at the position or in the backfield.
What this contract illustrates is that negotiations aren't always about on-field value. Sometimes, particularly in this case, there is value in keeping a globally-renowned figure in-house. There's more to the NFL than football; it's also a business, and any player who can drive revenue as heavily as Beckham does needs to be compensated accordingly. At the end of the day, although he can be a headache, the Giants obviously believe he's worth the investment, and that's ultimately all it takes to get paid.
I won't discuss the East and the North, because there is very little dissent. The other two divisions, however, should be very interesting and unpredictable. Here goes nothing!
AFC South
With Andrew Luck back on the field following a lingering shoulder injury, there isn't a bad team in the South. In fact, it could be a three-bid division when playoff time comes. Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars took the crown at 10–6 and nearly got to the Super Bowl. The Tennessee Titans, who came in second by a game, also got out of the Wild Card round. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts each finished 4–12 last year, but the odds of repeat disappointments to that degree are slim to none.
Even with Luck back, I don't think the Colts truly contend, as their roster is clearly the weakest of the group. Likewise, Jacksonville was a great story last year, but the team will face much stiffer competition this year. I would also more strongly consider the Jaguars to repeat as division champions if they had beaten division foes' starting quarterbacks. While they went 4–2 in the South, Luck missed the whole season, they avoided Deshaun Watson (who played less than half the season before tearing his ACL), and lost to Marcus Mariota and the Titans twice. Tack on their continued imbalance offensively, and they seem to have an uphill battle, at least to repeat as champions.
That leaves the two teams with dual threat quarterbacks — Tennessee and Houston — as the most dangerous teams. Houston has the most game-changing talent, including DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt in addition to Watson, but they appear to be incomplete, because the running game and secondary are fairly weak. Tennessee, on the other hand, has average talent (at a minimum) at every level defensively, a solid running game, and a passing game that will be improved with new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur (a descendant of the glorious, extensive Bill Walsh coaching tree, through the Grudens and Shanahans).
Even last year, with little offensive identity, the Titans went 9-7. Now they'll be utilizing Mariota as what he is: a play action and run-pass option (RPO) quarterback. The same goes for Derrick Henry (an underrated runner outside of the tackles who was seldom given the opportunity to do so), Dion Lewis can continue to be the multidimensional weapon he was in New England, and the wide receivers will be undoubtedly more involved. Don't believe me? Check out this video, which thoroughly breaks down how unstoppable this offense may become. Trust me, it's not as amateur as it looks.
AFC West
I'll cut straight to the chase in this division. While I can make arguments for every team, they're all heavily based on "what ifs" — except for one.
I just talked about the Gruden coaching tree as the meat of my claim for the Titans, and Jon Gruden is sitting here as Oakland's old, yet brand new, head coach. So why won't the Raiders get to the promise land? First, although Gruden has stayed connected to the game through his broadcast work, he hasn't coached in a decade. He also doesn't have an ideal, multifaceted running back at his disposal, which will hurt his beloved play action passing game. Lastly, the teacher isn't always the better option than the pupil. The "Gruden offense" has taken on so many beneficial wrinkles since he left the sidelines that he likely doesn't have every such trick in his playbook. The defense also has holes, which further cripples their chances.
It's amazing how far the Denver Broncos have fallen over the last two seasons, and it's almost exclusively because they haven't had a quarterback. Case Keenum is definitely an upgrade over Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler. Based on last season's production, he's arguably a franchise quarterback. However, he was, in my estimation, in the perfect place at the perfect time. Keenum will keep Denver afloat, but don't expect the team to be better than it was in year one with Siemian, which netted a 9–7 record.
Then we have the Kansas City Chiefs — the defending division champions and perennial playoff contenders. The team is almost completely unchanged except for one position: the quarterback. Patrick Mahomes has more upside than Alex Smith, but he is also less polished. He's capable of starting games — and also making some highlight reel plays — but he's by no means a finished product. This year won't be his, nor his team's, year to make a run.
That leaves the Los Angeles Chargers as the likely division winners. They have a well-rounded roster, although they've already suffered some injuries that hinder their chances at being one of the AFC's elite clubs. Even so, the combination of a Philip Rivers-led offense littered with playmakers and a young talent-laiden defense should be enough to add at least one win compared to last year, especially since they had numerous close losses and got hot late in the season. Adding just one win brings them to double figures, which may be all it takes to capture this division.
I'm a Virginia Tech alum, the Hokies rarely play Florida State, and it's a matchup of ranked teams. That game undoubtedly has significant intrigue, and I have the most investment and rooting interest in it. However, I'm going to take bias out of this and let the pure college football fan in me take over.
There are three more matchups that feature competing ranked opponents: No. 6 Washington vs. No. 9 Auburn in Atlanta, No. 14 Michigan at No. 12 Notre Dame, and No. 8 Miami vs. No. 25 LSU from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.
I'm fired up for all of them, but it's the middle game that intrigues me the most. Michigan vs. Notre Dame is a fairly historic rivalry, although the schools haven't faced off in four years. Most of all, this is a chance for Michigan, who finally found a star quarterback in Shea Patterson, to pick up a statement win against a ten-win team from 2017 in a hostile environment.
The Wolverines will certainly have their chances at signature wins in Big Ten play, but non-conference wins also play heavily in the building of a quality resume.
On the other side, The Fighting Irish aren't affiliated with a conference — although they still have a strong schedule — so they need all the wins they can get in these types of games. Although it would be a forgivable loss if Michigan competes for or wins the Big Ten, a loss to an 8–5 team (which is what the Wolverines were last year) on your home turf is a bit of a blemish.
The winner of this game, as well as the other three top matchups for that matter, will have a leg up on the competition through the opening weekend of play. That should be something more schools look to pursue, but I can't say I'm too disappointed with the featured slate this weekend.
I'm going to throw you for a loop and not include Bryce Harper, nor the need to give him some reps at first base to clear a spot for Victor Robles. Harper is the eye candy of the organization — and very expensive eye candy at that — but there may, in fact, be more pressing issues than re-signing one of the most talented players in the game. In fact, those areas should be explored before the big decision. It sounds crazy, but hear me out! Here are the three moves that need to be made to make the Nationals great again, counting down from No. 3 to No. 1.
3. Sign a second baseman to a "prove it" deal
There's an appealing group of "buy low" options at second base this offseason, and the Nationals have a temporary need at the position. Howie Kendrick, who has been on the shelf since May 19, almost fits the profile, but his already-declining defensive capabilities will be increasingly hampered by the torn Achilles that he's currently recovering from. Besides, the club has already shown it's not open to an aging veteran coming back from a lower-half injury at that spot when it shipped Daniel Murphy out of town.
Spending a bit higher to reunite with Asdrúbal Cabrera or reaching a tad for DJ LeMahieu isn't out of the question, but someone like Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier or Neil Walker seems more likely to be a match. Replacing Murphy with Dozier's upside, particularly his power, could be a major win for the club, and he'd likely be open to rebuilding his value.
Admittedly, this isn't a true need, because Wilmer Difo is a competent hitter and strong defender, while infield prospect Carter Kieboom is on the way, with second base as his likely destination. The position could be patchworked internally if necessary, but giving the right deal to the right player would be a shrewd move, especially from a depth perspective.
2. Bring back "The Buffalo"
There are a few different ways the Nationals could go — possibly including re-signing Matt Wieters, but NOT trading one or more top prospects for J.T. Realmuto — but the combination of Spencer Kieboom (Carter's older brother) and Pedro Severino behind the plate will not cut it. They haven't done much with the bat in the early stages of their careers, and there have been noticeable mixups with the pitching staff when it comes to game-calling.
Washington should have beaten the Phillies to the punch in acquiring Wilson Ramos a month ago, but that didn't happen. He was absolutely beloved in D.C. and was even open to taking a slight hometown discount two offseasons ago after suffering a torn ACL, to which the organization inexplicably gave him the cold shoulder, failing to even give him an offer.
Out of the available options at catcher, Ramos looks the most appealing, even excluding the existing connection. As long as the two parties are willing to forgive and forget the impasse they had previously encountered (which seems to have already happened), he would be the perfect fit on the field, in the clubhouse and in the community.
1. Pitching, pitching and more pitching
Washington needs both starters and relievers, so let's take this from the top down. Once free agency hits, Gio González and Jeremy Hellickson will be gone, and this is what the starting rotation will look like.
1. Max Scherzer
3. Tanner Roark
4. ???
5. ???
The favorites for the remaining two spots would include Tommy Milone, Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, Jefry Rodriguez and Austin Voth. They all have their flaws, though. Milone is a 31-year-old journeyman "AAAA" pitcher, Ross is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and has often not pitched to his ceiling, Fedde is much the same (minus as severe of an injury and with a bit less big league experience), Rodriguez isn't as highly touted and has been a mixed bag, and Voth appears to have fizzled out, and he put up a dud performance in his one big league start.
Before the offseason even arrives, the Nationals will have to use September to establish not only how many (if any) of these guys can be big league starters, but also how many are even big league arms, some of whom could be used as relievers. They have equal needs for hurlers who can serve in a setup role and in long, mop-up duty.
Regardless of how that process pans out, they will need an eighth inning man to compliment closer Sean Doolittle, because Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson and Greg Holland will be free agents and Brandon Kintzler and Shawn Kelley were already kicked to the curb during the last month. However, a starter and a couple additional relievers will almost certainly have to be added to sure up a shaky, somewhat injury prone pitching staff.
That wraps up this round of the mailbag. Check back next week to see the third edition of my Wednesday Weekly.