New Old-School Patriots Aren't Who You Think They Are
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These Guys Again?
Much to the chagrin of most of the country, the New England Patriots are back in the Super Bowl. They don't want to see the same team in February every year. Here's some good news, then. This Patriots team is almost the polar opposite of what we're all used to, and they're bringing back old school football.
Tom Brady may still be under center, but he's not running the show; the running game is. In the AFC title game, 48 of their 94 offensive plays were runs. The week prior, they either ran the ball or threw to a running back on 53 of their 78 snaps.
Quick disclaimer: Pro Football Focus (PFF) rates Brady as the top quarterback so far this postseason and Julian Edelman as the premiere wide receiver, while James White has the highest pass-catching grade of any running back over that stretch after finishing third in the regular season. We all know what these guys are capable of doing, and historically have done, in these games. Even so, the offense only runs through them when the situation calls for it (i.e. the fourth quarter and overtime against the Chiefs, when they needed clutch first downs).
The Running Game
The receiving core isn't as strong as it was with playoff Danny Amendola or Rob Gronkowski in his prime, but it hasn't mattered. First-round pick Sony Michel has 242 yards and five touchdowns on the ground in the last two weeks. The old adage is that, at this time of year, rookies aren't truly rookies anymore. After missing most of the offseason, not suiting up until Week 2 and sitting out of two more games midseason, Michel is full-strength at the most opportune time.
Even with a healthy bell cow, this stretch has been a fluke, right? Not exactly. Per PFF, Shaq Mason (highest-rated guard this season), Joe Thuney (No. 8 guard) and David Andrews (No. 7 center) have dominated the interior of defenses all season, and they're also peaking at the right time. In fact, the entire offensive line is.
Marcus Cannon, the low man, has a flair for the dramatic. He boasts the highest grade of any lineman in a Super Bowl in the PFF era, which he posted two years ago against the Atlanta Falcons. Fullback James Develin certainly also helps in the run game, and don't forget about Gronkowski inside. He may not be the receiver he once was, but he's always been an above-average blocker, and he has embraced perfecting his craft in the trenches.
The Rams are a unique challenge. Aaron Donald might be the best defensive player in the NFL. However, while he did have 20.5 sacks this season, he is known to be weaker against the run, which stands to reason, since he's a relatively light 280-pound defensive tackle.
Speaking of sacks, the line has kept Tom Brady astoundingly clean. The Patriots haven't surrendered one since Week 17.
A Healthy, Improving Front Seven
While the offensive has taken a virtual 180, the transformation of the defense has been equally impressive. It's been the team's weakness in recent history, and you'll frequently hear analysts discuss how there isn't a true star on that side of the ball. Whether that's accurate or not can be debated, but there are certainly players performing like stars.
Let's start on the defensive line. Trey Flowers is extremely underrated nationally. He can be the spy on a mobile quarterback, a feature edge rusher, or the nose tackle in a two-man defensive front. Comparing him to J.J. Watt would be foolish, but he plays much the same jack-of-all-trades role, and rather effectively. PFF rates him as the sixth-best edge defender (primary 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker) in the NFL.
The Patriots have better complimentary pieces around him than they get credit for, as well. Lawrence Guy is the tenth-best interior defender (defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends) in the league. In fact, he actually receives a slightly higher rating than Flowers. Five other linemen are considered average or better, including Deatrich Wise, who trails only Flowers in sacks, tackles for loss, and quarterback hits among front four players.
The linebacker group may be the most improved on the team. At this time last year, Dont'a Hightower was recovering from a torn ACL and Elandon Roberts was seemingly falling out of favor. Fast forward to this year, and they are two of the anchors of the second level, taking some of the load off Kyle Van Noy, who was at times the only true linebacker on the field in 2017. Their presence, along with his individual efforts, has made Van Noy a force this postseason after he led the team in tackles in the regular season.
The front seven may not generate as many sacks as some, but when they try to, they get home. The Patriots have perfected stunt blitzes, whether it's bumping Flowers or Wise inside, or disguising with Hightower and Van Noy.
A Stout Secondary
The safeties have done what the safeties always do. Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty are second and third on the team in tackles, only trailing Van Noy, while Duron Harmon tops the field in interceptions in a semi-reserve role. More often than not, all three of them will be on the field, although the Chiefs spread offense forced the Patriots to play an extra corner instead of Harmon.
The cornerbacks have improved (you read that right), despite losing Malcolm Butler in free agency and Eric Rowe, the team's third corner last season, to injury in October. They didn't get a single snap out of second-round rookie Duke Dawson, either.
After a stellar second half of 2017, Stephon Gilmore has been PFF's premier cornerback this season. Jason McCourty (who jumped Rowe on the depth chart even before his injury) was everything the team could've hoped for, playing on the outside and in the slot. However, the difference-maker has been undrafted rookie J.C. Jackson.
Jackson was a healthy scratch the first two weeks of the season, as well as in the Week 6 bout against Kansas City. He started getting reps on defense the following game, received his first start in Week 13 against the Vikings (welcome to the league, kid), and has matched Gilmore blow-for-blow ever since. As a matter of fact, he's topped him, albeit against second options. By the time the regular season was said and done, he had the lowest passer rating allowed when targeted in the NFL.
What to Expect
The Patriots are not a finesse team; they are built on physicality. They lead the league in time spent playing press man coverage. The offensive line has been great, and the defensive front can cause blockers fits.
Overall, the Patriots likely won't deviate from what they've been doing lately. They'll run the ball down L.A.'s throat as if it's the 1980s, playing the time of possession game while also moving the ball downfield. The more interesting development may be what they do with their secondary.
Last week, they placed Gilmore and Jackson on Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce, taking them out of the game for the most part, and predominately used a rotation of fourth and fifth-string cornerbacks Jonathan Jones and Keion Crossen, each of whom have been clocked at 4.33 seconds in the 40-yard dash, to combat Tyreek Hill. The combination of one of them and Devin McCourty over the top held Hill to one catch.
Don't be surprised if they treat ex-Patriot Brandin Cooks the same way. In theory, they could place Gilmore and Jackson on Robert Woods (who wears No. 17) and Josh Reynolds. Or Jackson could shift to Cooks and Jason McCourty could guard Reynolds.
This may be nothing, but Gilmore and Woods were teammates for four seasons in Buffalo, so it could be a comfortable matchup.
Who to Expect
On a somewhat related note, I came up with projected inactives for the game tonight. I don't have any insider information here; I'm simply basing this off recent trends in the decision-making process.
As you can see in the above thread, many of these are standard healthy scratches. Most of them haven't been playing much, if at all. My first two out were Danny Shelton and Derek Rivers, while my last two in were Adrian Clayborn and Obi Melifonwu. Deatrich Wise has missed the last two games following an ankle injury, with the AFC Championship being considered a healthy scratch, but he also hasn't missed any other games through his two-year career. It seems like he was given an extra week to get to full strength, and Derek Rivers isn't a massive drop-off.
The biggest factor that would force a change was a last minute complication regarding Malcom Brown's calf or Dont'a Hightower's undisclosed illness. If a concern arises, expect Shelton to be active and Melifonwu, who has sparingly played more than special teams and has been held out in the past, to sit. Shelton could easily get the line share of the reps if something happened to Brown.
Enjoy the Game
Whether you're a Patriots fan or not, if you can throw the emotional component aside, this team appeals to the traditional football fan. They're as physical as anyone, and few teams embrace all three phases of the game (offense, defense, and special teams) quite like the Patriots do. Between them and the Sean McVay-led Rams, this has the makings of a great Super Bowl.