Pats Cast Episode 17: Patriots to Host Lamar Jackson and the Ravens
On Sunday, Bill Belichick will get a front-row seat for "the one that got away" in the draft. (Photo: Sporting News/Getty Images)
The Patriots will be significantly challenged on Sunday night, when they take on the 6-2 Baltimore Ravens. It's not a secret that they're one of the best teams in the AFC. However, there is a formula for beating them.
We can debate whether the Patriots have the ability to execute that plan, but they do have some of the pieces to do it.
Here's what you need to know about the Ravens and the X-factors the Patriots have in terms of containing them.
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Oddly enough, a lot of metrics don't actually favor the Ravens. Statistically speaking, the Patriots are nearly identical to them in most categories:
• Yards per pass attempt (#21 vs. #20)
• Rushing yards per game (#1 vs. #4)
• Rushing yards per attempt (#3 vs. #6)
• Total offensive yards per game (#23 vs. #19)
• Passing yards per game allowed (#10 vs. #9)
• Yards per game allowed (#8 vs. #12)
• Turnovers forced (14 for each team, tied for #4 in the league)
Lamar Jackson averaging fewer than 250 all-purpose yards and shy of 200 yards passing – sorry for mixing up those stats on the mic – wasn't something many, if any, people could've expected.
However, there are a few important areas where the Ravens have a substantial advantage at this point in the season:
• Points scored per game (#7 vs. #28)
• Rushing yards allowed per game (#8 vs. #25)
• Points allowed per game (#1 vs. #12)
• Turnovers surrendered (10, t-13th fewest, vs. 15, t-4th most)
• Yards per kickoff return (#1 vs. #9, but split by nearly eight yards – in that sense, New England is closer to last than first)
Aside from the discrepancy in rushing defense, the rest of these metrics fall under the bucket of the little things. Some of them are directly related, but all of them are the exact principles Bill Belichick usually hammers home. With all else being equal, the Patriots have been unable to cash in on offensive opportunities, failed to "be tough" and stop the run, violated the "bend without breaking" principle defensively, and given up free yards – via turnovers and on special teams – at a higher rate than Baltimore.
These things are largely correctable, but they're all tied to attention to detail, and in some cases having intestinal fortitude – which Belichick's teams have typically been applauded for having an abundance of.
Well, it's gut-check time! People always say that in order to be the best, you have to beat the best. If the Patriots want to start a run towards making the playoffs and beyond, they have to beat better teams than the Jets, and there aren't many better litmus tests than the Ravens.
To be clear, Baltimore won't show mercy on the – potentially falling – dynasty that's prevented them from having a chance at establishing one of their own. In fact, they'll likely view this game as their Super Bowl before the Super Bowl.
The Ravens will try to do what they always do: run the bejesus out of the ball, bait the quarterback into making bad decisions, and assert their physical dominance in all three phases – offense, defense, and special teams.
Oh, and don't forget about that Lamar guy as a runner!
For what's it's worth, the Patriots are fairly well-constructed to throw speed onto the field on defense and contain the human joystick; it'll just be a matter of execution – particularly from Adrian Phillips, who was seemingly signed for this game and this role, thanks to his stellar performance in it with the Chargers in the 2018-19 postseason, spoiling a potential title run for Baltimore in the process.
Here's a peak at each team's injury report entering the weekend, which will also play a role in how this game plays out.
Photos: patriots.com
Even aside from Phillips, the Patriots may need a few players to have career days. However, that shouldn't apply to cornerbacks, who could be in store for some easy work. Here's how I think they'll match up with the Ravens receivers:
• Stephon Gilmore on Mark Andrews
• Jonathan Jones on Marquise "Hollywood" Brown
• J.C. Jackson on Willie Snead or Miles Boykin
• Jason McCourty on Boykin or Devin Duvernay
Sticking Gilmore on a tight end isn't ideal, but Andrews doesn't block a ton and is their most frequent target when he's on the field – which he isn't always.
I'd keep Jones attached to Brown for the most part – even though he isn't a slot receiver – in order to match his speed.
Aside from those two guys, there shouldn't be much to worry about. The trio of wideouts below them have combined for only 45 catches and fewer than 600 yards – not that Brown and Andrews have overwhelmingly better production.
They'll add some beef on the defensive line, but otherwise... speed, speed, and more speed. Expect to see more Kyle Dugger and Terrence Brooks than you're used to.
The offense will almost certainly need to outperform what's expected of them. It'll start with running the ball early, often, and efficiently. But that won't be enough; receivers will need to do something.
Assuming the most likely injury-related outcomes ahead of the game, here are the alignments you'll most likely see:
• X Receiver: Damiere Byrd vs. Marcus Peters
• Z Receiver: Isaiah Ford vs. Terrell Bonds
• Slot Receiver: Jakobi Meyers vs. Marlon Humphrey
That last matchup will be the one to watch, and one that may or may not come to fruition. It would be a certainty if Jimmy Smith was healthy, but with him doubtful, the Ravens' cupboard of boundary cornerbacks might be too bare to not line Humphrey up there. But if it happens, that's an up-and-coming but unproven WR1 against a firmly-established Pro Bowl cornerback. Talk about litmus tests!
Don't sleep on special teams, either. Nick Folk and Jake Bailey have had strong seasons, but Justin Tucker and Sam Koch make up one of the best kicker-punter duos in the league, and Duvernay looks like one of the best kick returners, as well.
No one said getting back to .500 would be easy. The Patriots will have to take down one of the best teams in the AFC to get there, and the nation will be watching – on Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, to be specific.
If New England is able to escape this game with a victory, Houston will have a problem next week.