Pats Cast Episode 19: Patriots Travel to Houston to Face Deshaun Watson and the Texans
Deshaun Watson has consistently been one of the best quarterbacks the Patriots have faced every season. (Photo: Mark Brown/Getty Images)
Now on a two-game winning streak, the Patriots take a road trip to the football capital of America – Texas.
In many ways, the Houston Texans are a lot like a Big 12 football team. They have some fire power on offense, but their defense struggles to stop anybody – although it does feature a few solid players.
They've also had a lot of turnover this season. Bill O'Brien has been fired, with 73-year-old associate head coach and semi-retired former defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel taking his place.
Here's my overall analysis entering Sunday's game:
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Update: Sony Michel has been activated from injured reserve, while Hjalte Froholdt and Derek Rivers were subsequently released.
Texans Offense
The Texans have a solid offense, but the unit as a whole has somewhat underachieved. They're only averaging one more point and three more yards per game than the Patriots, but they have more talent than that.
Deshaun Watson (2,539 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions through nine games) is one of the best quarterbacks in the business, and he has two of the better receivers in the AFC at his disposal.
• Will Fuller: 41 catches, 628 yards, six touchdowns
• Brandin Cooks: 43 catches, 549 yards, three touchdowns
The troublesome area has been their running game. They only average 88 yards per game on the ground, slightly better than half of what the Patriots average. To make matters worse, their starter (David Johnson) was recently placed on IR. Duke Johnson will replace him as the lead back.
Their offensive line is also among the worst in the league, and it's anchored by Laremy Tunsil (who might not be able to play on Sunday).
Defense
J.J. Watt is a force, but there isn't much else on this side of the ball, although linebacker Zach Cunningham is one of the better players in the league at his position. Whitney Mercilus has upside, but he's underachieved this year, and linebacker Benardrick McKinney is on IR.
Bradley Roby is a solid cornerback who can play inside or outside, but the rest of their defensive backs have had rough seasons. They'll likely start Vernon Hargreaves and Lonnie Johnson on the boundary with Roby in the slot, Eric Murray at strong safety and Justin Reid at free safety.
Injury Report
The Patriots are in worse shape than the Texans here, but New England is trending – slightly – in the right direction.
Photos: patriots.com
For the Patriots, the most notable is certainly Stephon Gilmore, although he's trending in the right direction and was finally made available to the media on Friday – which likely means he'll play.
For the Texans, it's definitely Tunsil. The offense would likely struggle on a play-to-play basis without him.
Key Matchups
When the Texans are on offense, here's what you'll see:
• Will Fuller vs. Stephon Gilmore
• Brandin Cooks vs. J.C. Jackson
• Randall Cobb vs. Jonathan Jones
• Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard vs. (primarily) John Simon and Chase Winovich
This, of course, assumes that everyone will play on Sunday, which isn't a certainty. But you know the drill. Jason McCourty will step in if Gilmore is inactive, and Deatrich Wise could get onto the field more if Simon is out.
Equally important, if Tunsil doesn't play, the Texans don't have a solid replacement for him.
Here's the same exercise for when the Patriots are on offense:
• Jakobi Meyers vs. Bradley Roby
• Damiere Byrd vs. Vernon Hargreaves
• N'Keal Harry or Isaiah Ford vs. Lonnie Johnson
• Isaiah Wynn and Michael Onwenu vs. J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus
I expect to see Byrd, Harry and Ford receive fairly equal reps in this game, provided Harry is able to take the field.
Watt is tough to project, because they move him around the formation quite a bit. However, expect to see him line up against Wynn and Onwenu most frequently.
Overall, the Patriots are the better team, and the late addition of Sony Michel to the running game gives them a stout advantage in that area. If they're able to have a low volume, high efficiency game through the air – similar to last week against Baltimore – the offense will have no trouble. And if they can limit Deshaun Watson's impact on the other side, the defense will also be fine.
Game time is 1:00 ET, and it can be seen on CBS – no nationally televised game this week, unfortunately.
If you've been waiting for a game against a respectable opponent – let's face it, the Jets don't qualify as one – that the Patriots should win and look good in, then this game is for you. Tune in!