Pats Cast Episode 23: Patriots Head West to Take On the Sputtering Chargers

Bill Belichick normally feasts against rookie quarterbacks, but Justin Herbert is a different breed. Who will prevail on Sunday? (Photo: Harry How/Getty Images)

Coming off a victory most people didn't expect against the Cardinals, the Patriots (5-6) will face the Chargers (3-8) in Inglewood, California.

I discussed L.A.'s defense in some depth earlier in the week, but here's some more detail on their team, injury reports for both sides, and matchups to watch.

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Chargers Offense

L.A.'s offense is relatively pass-heavy, in part because the running back position has been a revolving door all season. The return of starter Austin Ekeler adds some balance to the unit, but even he is best as a pass-catching back, not a runner.

Having said that, Ekeler is very dangerous as a receiver. He's missed too much time this season to make much of an evaluation, but he caught 92 passes for 993 yards and eight touchdowns last year – and that was with Melvin Gordon on the roster. He's averaging virtually as many receptions per game this season as he did last season though, so he's still very impactful when he's able to play.

With Justin Jackson sidelined, my assumption is that Kalen Ballage is their No. 2 running back, since he got 23 touches two weeks ago (before sitting out last week), but it's hard to say with any certainty, because Joshua Kelley filled in for him and averaged five yards per carry with a touchdown plus two receptions.

Whomever of them claims the backup role will likely be used fairly sparingly, but in more obvious rushing situations, with Ekeler serving as virtually an every-down back. Don't rule out the idea of Ekeler lining up as a receiver at times, though.

In the passing game, expect Keenan Allen, Keenan Allen and more Keenan Allen. Since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback, Allen leads the league in targets. Through 11 games, he's caught 85 passes for 875 yards and seven touchdowns, and he had a 16-catch performance on 19 targets two weeks ago. That's absurd volume, but defenses have had no solution.

Tight end Hunter Henry is their next most prominent receiver, followed by wideouts Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton.

As for Justin Herbert, he'll be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. That's a certainty now that Joe Burrow is out for the remainder of the season. He's averaging over 300 passing yards per game and more than three touchdowns per interception, and competing better than two-thirds of his passes. He's arguably already better than Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, who many experts viewed as his closest comparison coming out of college.

Stopping the slot receiver (Allen) and running back out of the backfield (Ekeler) while also preventing deep completions will be the formula defensively. That's a lot to stop, and it's why this offense frequently scores points with ease. You almost have to play them the same way as the Chiefs, and that's always a struggle for the opposition.

Chargers Defense

The good news for the Patriots is that L.A.'s defense is suspect. Joey Bosa is extremely talented, but not many of his fellow starters on that side of the ball are. It certainly doesn't help that his edge rush mate Melvin Ingram is on IR, forcing them to rely on Uchenna Nwosu. Second-year defensive tackle Jerry Tillery is still trying to put the pieces together, but he's shown flashes as a pass rusher, as he's second on the team in quarterback hits.

Denzel Perryman has somewhat fallen out of favor, and starter Kyzir White is on IR, leaving first-round rookie Kenneth Murray as the leader by default at linebacker. That's put the Chargers in a bind at the second level, because Murray is a bit inconsistent as a tackler – although his athleticism is undeniably present. That could play in the Patriots' favor.

The secondary has also been questionable. Ordinarily, particularly when hit with the injury bug, the Chargers would turn to a base nickel defense and play around half of their snaps in dime (six defensive backs). However, with Derwin James on IR, Adrian Phillips now with the Patriots and Desmond King with the Titans, they don't have the personnel to do it. Instead, they've left the linebackers out to dry somewhat, with Casey Hayward and Michael Davis as the lone cornerbacks along with Rayshawn Jenkins and Nasir Adderly at safety. However, slot corner Chris Harris is healthy now, so they can at least play nickel more frequently. Regardless, the unit as a whole has struggled a bit this year, and Harris alone won't fix that.

Injury Reports

The Patriots are still banged up, while the Chargers are relatively healthy, aside from players on IR.

Photos: patriots.com

Both team's injuries are fairly significant, in terms of which players are hurt. Adam Butler and J.J. Taylor were the only players listed above who missed last week's game due to injury, and almost everyone else was on the injury report. The only new injuries are to Cam Newton and Jakob Johnson – I'm not counting Anfernee Jennings, who wasn't hurt and was eventually removed from the injury report.

Perryman (doubtful) is temporarily a starter, Hayward (questionable) is one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Nwosu (questionable) is a starting pass rusher, Ballage (questionable) is a rotational running back, and Reed (questionable) is L.A.'s kick returner.

Matchups

With the Chargers on offense, here's what you'll probably see:

X-Receiver: Mike Williams vs. J.C. Jackson

Z-Receiver: Jalen Guyton vs. Jason McCourty/Jonathan Jones

Slot Receiver: Keenan Allen vs. Stephon Gilmore

Tight End: Hunter Henry vs. Jonathan Jones/Joejuan Williams

Running Back: Austin Ekeler vs. Kyle Dugger

Nothing fancy here. The Patriots likely rotate Williams in for Jones or Jason McCourty at some point to alternate their looks, but the top six defensive backs (including Devin McCourty and excluding WILL Adrian Phillips) should have pretty consistent roles all game.

With the Patriots defensive line – particularly the defensive tackles – coming off a sensational game against the Cardinals, the weak front five of the Chargers could be in for a tough outing.

With the Patriots on offense, this is what you'll see the most:

X-Receiver: Damiere Byrd vs. Casey Hayward/Michael Davis

Z-Receiver: N'Keal Harry vs. Brandon Facyson

Slot Receiver: Jakobi Meyers vs. Chris Harris

Tight End: Ryan Izzo vs. Rayshawn Jenkins/Kenneth Murray

Running Back: James White vs. Rayshawn Jenkins

Byrd is the top non-slot wide receiver and has the best speed. He'll either draw the best corner (Hayward, if he can play) or the quickest (Davis, if Hayward is out). Either way, Meyers likely lines up against Harris regardless of whether he's in the slot or on the boundary in two-wide sets, and Harry will see Facyson – a fellow Hokie alum who is somewhat limited but has the best physical measurables, much like Harry. Jenkins takes the next-highest priority receiver (White, if he's in the game, or the tight end otherwise).

Joey Bosa typically lines up on the defensive left side, meaning Michael Onwenu will see him the most. Bosa gets moved around though, so the still-undecided upon duo of Jermaine Eluemunor and Justin Herron aren't entirely out of the woods.

Final Thoughts

Game time is at 4:25 p.m. local and 1:25 p.m. Pacific from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Sunday. The game will be broadcasted on CBS, with Kevin Harlan and Trent Green on the call. The currently-listed high temperature for game time is 67 degrees, and there are no signs of rain in the forecast.

This is certainly a winnable game for the Patriots, even in spite of it being a west coast road trip. With a win, they would climb back to .500 for the first time in quite awhile. The Chargers are about as close to full strength as they've been all season though, which could make them spoilers. At 6-6 with a win, the Patriots could be sitting a game out of Wild Card position by the end of Week 13.