Best and Worst of the 2018 NBA Draft
Photo via Sporting News
With the NBA Draft officially in the books, it's time to assign winners and losers. I'll get to that, but first, let's go back and see how I did in predicting the top ten picks.
1. Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Center Deandre Ayton (Arizona)
Actual: Ayton
He was the best player in the class. Next!
2. Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Guard/forward Luka Doncic (Real Madrid)
Actual: Power forward/center Marvin Bagley III (Duke)
Experts believed that the best player available was Doncic. Maybe the Kings didn't, or maybe they wanted to address a need. I had a hunch that which of the two they would take was nearly a coin flip. They like Bagley more than most teams and people in general. We'll see if it pays off. They do have an extensive recent history of whiffing, though — this was their tenth straight year picking in the top ten.
3. Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Center Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State)
Actual: Doncic (traded to Mavericks)
Again, I expected them to go with the best player available. That wound up being Doncic. I'll live with it.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Center Mohamed Bamba (Texas)
Actual: Jackson
See above, then insert Jackson for Doncic.
5. Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Bagley
Actual: Point guard Trae Young (Oklahoma, traded to Hawks)
This is the first selection I didn't see coming. I thought his ceiling was sixth, which was where I slotted him. However, I'll explain later how this pick wound up making sense for Atlanta.
6. Orlando Magic
Prediction: Young
Actual: Bamba
Another best player available situation.
7. Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Forward Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri)
Actual: Center Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke)
Carter may have been my second option here, but Porter made a lot of sense in this slot, medicals notwithstanding. Evidently they didn't feel so confident.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Point guard Collin Sexton (Alabama)
Actual: Sexton
I'm back in the game! In LeBron James' words, they needed a playmaker. Sexton epitomizes that.
9. New York Knicks
Prediction: Small forward Mikal Bridges (Villanova)
Actual: Forward Kevin Knox (Kentucky)
I saw them going with the best small forward available. I, and many experts, thought that was Bridges, but they thought it was Knox. Maybe that's why they are where they are.
10. Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Small forward Miles Bridges (Michigan State)
Actual: Mikal Bridges (traded to Suns)
It was a best small forward available situation. I even noted in my mock that Mikal would be more ideal than Miles if he was available. I never would've guessed that they would trade him, though.
In all, I only had two picks correct, but was within one spot on four others, within two on Bamba, and each of the Duke stars were my runners-up for the slots in which they went.
Now for the fun part, speculating on how guys who have never played in the league will perform at the next level. It's never exact, but here are my initial post-draft superlatives.
Most flashy
Phoenix Suns
Picks
1. Deandre Ayton
10. Mikal Bridges
31. Point guard Elie Okobo (France)
59. Small forward George King (Colorado)
Ayton was the star of this class. He will be a matchup nightmare for the rest of the league. He's 7-foot-1 and 250 pounds and will likely be a star post player. However, he's also very athletic. He converted on 34 percent of his three-point attempts. In many respects, Ayton is a lot like Karl-Anthony Towns, but he may actually have more upside, particularly of he provides anything on the defensive end.
Bridges was the perfect fit for the 76ers — he was a top-flight three-point shooter and great defender in college, during which he played in Philadelphia, and his sister works for the organization — but then they traded him. That killed some of the feel-good qualities of the selection, but it doesn't change Bridges' value.
Devin Booker, Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren (all wing players) were the team's top three assets entering the draft, but the Suns won't complain about adding to a strength, especially because it gives them the ability to play small more often.
The selection of Okobo is also significant. Whether they re-sign Elfrid Payton (who is a restricted free agent) or not, they desperately needed point guard depth. Like Bridges, he knocked down north of 40 percent of his threes in his most recent action, and his 6-foot-8 wingspan gives him a chance to hang tough with NBA point guards.
The Suns now have a core of Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Josh Jackson and Mikal Bridges. They may have been a cellar-dweller this year, but don't expect them to stay there.
Most interesting
Dallas Mavericks
Picks
3. Luka Doncic
33. Point guard Jalen Brunson (Villanova)
56. Power forward Ray Spalding (Louisville, via trade with 76ers)
60. Power forward Kostas Antetokounmpo (Dayton, via trade with 76ers)
The Hawks initially took Doncic, but agreed to trade him to Dallas, as long as the Mavericks' pick was Trae Young. The European prodigy can now be mentored by possibly the best player of all-time with such roots — Dirk Nowitzki. Additionally, he can be a facilitator to pair with incumbent, scoring-focused point guard Dennis Smith Jr.
After selecting Brunson, a reigning first-team All-American who won the National Championship in 2018, they swung another trade, dealing pick no. 54 (Shake Milton) to Philadelphia for two selections later in the round. The first became Spalding, a versatile forward who played under Rick Pitino (before he was forced away, amid controversy, in 2017) for two seasons. The latter, however, became the younger brother of "The Greek Freak," who shares some of his measurables (albeit without major production in college).
Most copycat
Atlanta Hawks
Picks
5. Trae Young
19. Shooting guard Kevin Huerter (Maryland)
30. Power forward/center Omari Spellman (Villanova)
Prior to becoming the general manager in Atlanta, Travis Schlenk was the assistant GM in Golden State. Naturally, with his three picks, he chose the most Steph Curry-like point guard, a Klay Thompson-like (at least offensively) wing player and a big man who shot over 40 percent from three-point range who also just won a title.
Becoming a poor man's version of whoever's at the top may or may not be the way to go, but it is a step forward for the Hawks. If nothing else, at least they now have a clear direction, instead of tanking for the sake of tanking.
These first round picks join Dennis Schroder (although his fit may now be questionable), John Collins and Taurean Prince as building blocks moving forward.
Most head-scratching
Washington Wizards
Picks
15. Small forward Troy Brown Jr. (Oregon)
44. Point guard Issuf Sanon (Ukraine)
While the Wizards reached a bit for both of these players — ESPN ranked them as the 26th and 51st-best players, respectively — the larger issue is that neither of these players fit into the big picture in the present.
The team wants to contend now, and they had three clear needs to get them to that point: a "three-and-D" wing player or true forward, a big man who can consistently make his presence felt, and a ball-handler to compliment John Wall. They addressed none of them.
If that's not enough, Keita Bates-Diop (who I proposed was their best option in the first round) was available at both of their slots, yet they passed on him both times.
Troy Brown Jr., while athletic, converted on fewer than 30 percent of his three-point attempts in college. He is regarded as a solid passer, much like Andre Iguodala, but until they are able to spread the floor with multiple shooters, he likely won't be able to optimize that ability. At best, he will initially profile as a lesser Kelly Oubre Jr. with the ability to also take some of the load off Tomas Satoransky as a ball-handler on the second unit. That's not a terrible addition, but they are rarely in this favorable of a position in the draft, and they didn't capitalize.
As for Sanon, although he's only 18 years old and has shown upside, he isn't ready yet. In fact, he has already announced his intentions to stay overseas next year (like Satoransky did). He might help them down the road, but until he's in D.C., he doesn't move the needle.
Most out-of-character
San Antonio Spurs
Picks
18. Guard/forward Lonnie Walker IV (Miami)
49. Power forward/center Chimezie Metu (USC)
If we're talking about winning the draft in terms of the value a team got out of their selections, the Spurs are near the top. With the Kawhi Leonard situation looking worse by the day, an athletic wing player with the upside of a lottery pick fell right into their laps. How convenient!
Then they came back in the second round and found a defensive-minded big in Metu. He lacks polish offensively, but still averaged 15 points per game as a junior. His calling card is on the defense end, where he is a shot-blocker and has the ability to move outside of the paint.
Yes, the Spurs love defense, and both of these players project to have high value on that end. Nothing about that is "out of character." What is striking about these picks, though, is how reactionary in nature they appear to be. For the first time in a long time, they saw two needs — a two-way star on the wing (to replace Kawhi) and an interior defensive presence (to offset the aging, offensive-minded LaMarcus Aldridge) — and addressed them in the draft.
They seem to select at least one European "draft-and-stash" player every year, and no one they pick is expected to shoulder much of the load in their first few years. Not this time around. This year, Walker will be looked upon to play a major role (possibly "one-a" to Aldridge, depending on what happens with Kawhi) from the moment he steps onto the court, and even Metu could see major playing time (unless they sign a veteran free agent).
Most Spurs-like
Brooklyn Nets
Picks
29. Forward Dzanan Musa (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
40. Forward Rodions Kurucs (Latvia)
Maybe they were the Spurs in disguise. Maybe they're just embracing tanking on a new level. Either way, they opted to draft two lanky European prospects.
For more on the Nets' picks, I'll turn to draft expert Jonathan Givony, just like the ESPN crew did.
Best addition to a contender
Guard Grayson Allen (Duke) to the Utah Jazz
Regardless of how you feel about this player on a personal level, he is undeniably a prolific scorer. They already have one of those, Donovan Mitchell, but his biggest weakness, his three-point shooting ability, appears to be Allen's greatest strength.
Without Ricky Rubio on the court, Mitchell's efficiency also took a major hit. While Allen isn't a true point guard, he provides an uptick in ball-handling ability compared to their other off-guards, taking some of the load off the breakout star.
Utah was the fourth-seed in the Western Conference this past year, even with the outlined deficiencies. With Allen, they appear to have solidified themselves as a top-four team in the West (at least for now), with the potential to be more dangerous in the postseason.
Best player to the worst fit
Michael Porter Jr. to the Denver Nuggets
The fact that Porter lasted until No. 14 was shocking. He is easily one of the most talented rookies-to-be. If not for his back injury and recent hip complication, he would've been selected in the top five. Drafting that kind of player in this slot can't be knocked.
Then again, as much as I want to say the Nuggets got a steal, it's somewhat head-scratching. In Denver, he'll have to play small forward the majority of the time, because Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap will play heavy minutes as the starting big men. He can shoot the ball (although he didn't do so well in limited collegiate action), but he's also 6-foot-11. He doesn't appear to be fleet-of-foot enough to be a wing defender, either, especially if injuries continue to pop up.
We'll never know for sure if teams hit or missed on their picks until the players take the court and prove it. Certain teams appear to have performed better than others while on the clock, but only time will tell.